| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NTH7EE | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/05.19.18.38 | |||
| Last Update | 2017:05.19.18.38.24 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/05.19.18.38.24 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2018:06.04.02.27.28 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1002/2016JA023853 | |||
| ISSN | 2169-9402 | |||
| Citation Key | BalanESSBRONF:2017:ScFoSe | |||
| Title | A scheme for forecasting severe space weather  | |||
| Year | 2017 | |||
| Month | Mar. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, May 16 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 1641 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Balan, N. 2 Ebihara, Y. 3 Skoug, R. 4 Shiokawa, K. 5 Batista, Inez Staciarini 6 Ram, S. Tulasi 7 Omura, Y. 8 Nakamura, T. 9 Fok, M. C. | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 5 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHDA | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 DIDAE-CGCEA-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Kyoto University 2 Kyoto University 3 Los Alamos National Laboratory 4 Nagoya University 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Indian Institute of Geomagnetism 7 Kyoto University 8 National Institute of Polar Research 9 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 balannanan@gmail.com 2 3 4 5 inez.batista@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics | |||
| Volume | 122 | |||
| Number | 3 | |||
| Pages | 2824-2835 | |||
| History (UTC) | 2017-05-19 18:38:24 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017-05-19 18:38:24 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 2017-05-19 18:40:01 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017 2018-06-04 02:27:28 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | severe space weather CME front CME shock B-z southward impulsive action | |||
| Abstract | A scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north-south component (B-z) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events (DstMin <=-100 nT) in 1998-2016. The coincidence of high coronal mass ejection (CME) front (or CME shock) velocity Delta V (sudden increase in V over the background by over 275km/s) and sufficiently large B-z southward at the time of the Delta V increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (Delta VxB(z)) is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase. Such a product (Delta VxB(z)) exceeding a threshold seems suitable for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not containing Delta V) and large B-z southward does not correspond to SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large B-z southward and high Delta V coming through when they coincide. The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM (Comprehensive Ring Current Model), which produces extreme Dst storms (<Dst(MP)> < -250 nT) characterizing SvSW when there is coincidence. Plain Language Summary Severe space weather has been known to affect the society by damaging satellite systems and electric power grids. For example, a space weather of the type that occurred in September 1859, if occurs at present times, can cause very serious damages costing up to 1 to 2 trillion U.S. dollars. It is therefore important to study space weather and understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be forecasted and predicted. In this paper we show that the coincidence of the speed of solar storms and southward orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field is responsible for severe space weather at the Earth, and it can be forecasted by 35 min using the data from a satellite that stays at 220 x radius of Earth away from the Earth. | |||
| Area | CEA | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDAE > A scheme for... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NTH7EE | |||
| zipped data URL | http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NTH7EE | |||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | balan_scheme.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher6 allowfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | allow from all | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3ETL868 | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21/2012/07.13.14.50.14 1 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/09.29.20.43 1 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; AGU; MGA; COMPENDEX. | |||
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||